Environment, Energy, Uncertainty (EEU)
The project develops within the research group Agenda 2030 and it is linked to the Sustainable Development objectives numbers 2 (Food), 6 (Water) and 7 (Energy) and to the other sub-programs. The project aims to study the energy market, the new technologies, the decarbonisation process, the water cycle, and the costs and benefits of water management. The project mainly consists in the theoretical and empirical development of methodologies useful for the study of risk analysis and the evaluation of investment choices in conditions of uncertainty. In addition to this, the research project will have to define the implementation phases of a macroeconomic survey model for the evaluation of intervention policies in some developing countries, which are being studied by other FEEM research groups. It will be necessary to study the energy input – output models currently adopted and identify a macro tool that can be integrated with them in order to complete, with economic surveys, the studies developed so far. The research will also have to evaluate possible integrations with the part more properly dedicated to the themes of Water and Food, also adopting agent-based methodologies. After a preliminary study of the possible meeting points between the different methodologies, the research would build a new CGE model scalable both geographically and in terms of sectoral complexity.
The expected outputs will be:
- some research developments in the field of investment choices in conditions of uncertainty, in particular related to alternative energy resources or water resources;
- the development of a basic CGE model adaptable to existing input-output models and a pilot test of the model on a country (e.g. Kenya) and the development of a micro-based CGE- agent based model;
- the study of changes in the production system following shocks, both within the production chain and in terms of sectoral productivity.
The main expected results will be as follows:
1. For the analysis of the energy market the construction of calibrated survey models capable of explaining some strategies observed in recent years in the context of the “Shale Revolution” and the collapse of oil prices.
2. For the analysis of a renewable resource, the development of partial equilibrium models relating to efficiency of the development of new technologies in photovoltaic energy production and the development of green communities;
3. The development of a country calibrated beta CGE model (e.g. Kenya).
4. The analysis of risk and the impact of uncertainty on investments in stochastic models related to the energy market; the study of policies related to taxation and the economy of the environment.
5. Macro surveys will be developed to assess the effects of economic shocks on business strategies, at systemic and sectoral productivity levels.
- “Risk of Poverty in Southern Europe” (May 2020), Mussida Chiara, Maria Laura Parisi, Metroeconomica, 71(2): pp. 294-315;
- “Features of personal income inequality before and during the crisis: an analysis of Italian regions” (April 2020), Mussida Chiara, Maria Laura Parisi, Regional Studies, 54(4): pp. 472-482;
- “Economic Convergence in the EU and Eurozone” (Earlycite 22-09-2019), Marelli Enrico, Maria Laura Parisi, Marcello Signorelli , Journal of Economic Studies, 46(7): pp. 1332-1344, ISSN 0144-3585;
- “Regional Diffusion of Military Regimes in Sub-Saharan Africa” (2020), Raul Caruso, Nicola Pontarollo, Roberto Ricciuti, Papers in Regional Science, 99(1): pp. 225-244;
- “Towards regional renewal: A multilevel perspective for the EU” (2019), Nicola Pontarollo, Carolina Serpieri, Regional Studies;
- “Unveiling the internal migration dynamics in Ecuador between 2001 and 2010” (2019), Nicola Pontarollo, Joselin Segovia, Regional Studies, Regional Science, 6(1): pp. 368-370;
- “The statistical properties of the networks of emigrants: the Ecuadorian case” (2019), Alexandra M. Espinosa, Luís Horna, Rodrigo Mendieta Muñoz, Nicola Pontarollo, International Migration, 57(4): pp. 40-57;
- “Ethnic Minority Concentration: A Source of Productivity Growth for Italian Provinces?” (2019), Alessandra Michelangeli, Nicola Pontarollo, Giuseppe Vittucci Marzetti, Papers in Regional Science, 98(1): pp. 17-34;
- “Supra National, National and Local Dimensions of Voter Turnout in European Parliament Elections” (2019), Nadia Fiorino, Nicola Pontarollo, Roberto Ricciut, Journal of Common Market Studies, 57(4): pp. 877-893;
- “Local Perceptions of Water-Energy-Food Security: Livelihood Consequences of Dam Construction in Ethiopia” (2020), Million Gebreyes,Davide Bazzana, Anna Simonett,Detlef Müller-Mahn,Benjamin Zaitchik,Gianni Gilioli, Belay Simane, Sustainability, 12(6): p. 2161;
- “Heterogeneous expectations and endogenous fluctuations in the financial accelerator framework” (2020), Davide Bazzana, Macroeconomic Dynamics, pp. 1-33;
- “Railways and manufacturing productivity in Italy after unification” (2020), Nicola Pontarollo, Roberto Ricciuti, Journal of Regional Science;
- “Structural Funds, Institutional Quality and Regional Economic Convergence in EU: A Spatial Econometric Approach” (2020), Elisa Montresor, Francesco Pecci, Nicola Pontarollo, in Thill J.C (eds.) Innovations in Urban and Regional Systems;
- “El crecimiento cantonal en Ecuador y el papel de la heterogeneidad espacial” (2019), Rodrigo Mendieta, Diego Ontaneda, Nicola Pontarollo, CEPAL Review, 129: pp.163-189;
- “Mafia murders in Palermo (1909-1992)” (2019), Nicola Pontarollo, Ricciuti Roberto, Journal of Regional Security, 14(1): pp. 25–28;
- Organization of special issue “Energy Economics” (Class A Journal, ASN; ClassA, ANVUR) for the Workshop “Energy Transition and Decarbonization” in the IARE’s annual conference, 06-07 February 2020, University of Brescia. Deadline: September 2020;
- Speech at Associazione Italiana Economisti dell’Ambiente e delle Risorse Naturali annual conference, 06 and 07 February 2020;
- Speech at Workshop “Energy Transition and Decarbonization”, 06 and 07 February 2020;
- Accepted Paper presented by coauthor, “Optimal Energy Mix between Photovoltaic and Conventional in a LCOE Framework”, Elsevier 2nd International Conference on Energy Research and Social Science, Tempe (USA), 28 – 31 May 2019;
- Invited speaker, international Workshop “Dynamic Models of Strategic Investment under Uncertainty”, Bielefeld University, Bielefeld, 17 and 18 December 2018.