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The project develops within the research group Agenda 2030 and it is linked to the Sustainable Development objectives numbers 2 (Food), 6 (Water) and 7 (Energy) and to the other sub-programs. The project aims to study the energy market, the new technologies, the decarbonisation process, the water cycle, and the costs and benefits of water management. The project mainly consists in the theoretical and empirical development of methodologies useful for the study of risk analysis and the evaluation of investment choices in conditions of uncertainty. In addition to this, the research project will have to define the implementation phases of a macroeconomic survey model for the evaluation of intervention policies in some developing countries, which are being studied by other FEEM research groups. It will be necessary to study the energy input – output models currently adopted and identify a macro tool that can be integrated with them in order to complete, with economic surveys, the studies developed so far. The research will also have to evaluate possible integrations with the part more properly dedicated to the themes of Water and Food, also adopting agent-based methodologies. After a preliminary study of the possible meeting points between the different methodologies, the research would build a new CGE model scalable both geographically and in terms of sectoral complexity.

The expected outputs will be:

  •  some research developments in the field of investment choices in conditions of uncertainty, in particular related to alternative energy resources or water resources;
  •  the development of a basic CGE model adaptable to existing input-output models and a pilot test of the model on a country (e.g. Kenya) and the development of a micro-based CGE- agent based model;
  • the study of changes in the production system following shocks, both within the production chain and in terms of sectoral productivity.

The main expected results will be as follows:

1. For the analysis of the energy market the construction of calibrated survey models capable of explaining some strategies observed in recent years in the context of the “Shale Revolution” and the collapse of oil prices.

2. For the analysis of a renewable resource, the development of partial equilibrium models relating to efficiency of the development of new technologies in photovoltaic energy production and the development of green communities;

3. The development of a country calibrated beta CGE model (e.g. Kenya).

4. The analysis of risk and the impact of uncertainty on investments in stochastic models related to the energy market; the study of policies related to taxation and the economy of the environment.

5. Macro surveys will be developed to assess the effects of economic shocks on business strategies, at systemic and sectoral productivity levels. 

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