Energy Environment and Uncertainty Models – EEUMs
The project aims to deepen the study of phenomena observed in energy markets and related to environmental issues under conditions of uncertainty, with a focus on new technologies for the decarbonisation process, renewable energies and the role of information. Depending on the relevant topic, the approach used can be either theoretical or empirical in nature. In the project, representative agent and macro models are developed, building stochastic dynamics (empirically validated) that simulate systemic and idiosyncratic shocks to energy and resource markets.
The main objectives of the research project are:
- Empirical study of the effects of green policy announcements on stock returns observed in European markets;
- Construction of a stochastic theoretical model to describe the dynamics of the price of CO2 emissions in the EU ETS market and the presence of Carbon Capture & Storage (CSS);
- Construction of a real options model to evaluate the effects in terms of systemic welfare of the presence of incentives for companies to finance the conversion of production processes;
- Empirical study of the electricity price, in order to identify its cyclical/seasonal components and to study its volatility structure in the presence of an emission tax mechanism;
- Study of the role of information in the development of energy communities;
- Regionalization of an integrated macro model, study of migration phenomena caused by climate change.
Main results and outputs
The objectives listed in the previous point correspond to specific studies currently underway within the project, each of which will eventually be enhanced by submission to international peer-reviewed journals. If deemed appropriate or functional to the development of the topics covered, before this phase some works may be released as working papers. During the year 2022, it is expected that the following outputs of the research activity will be achieved:
- 1 publication in peer-reviewed scientific journals;
- 2 submissions to peer-reviewed journals;
- 2 FEEM “Working Notes” or CESifo working papers.
The activities and outputs of the project are aimed at providing decision-making tools and empirical analysis to support the activities of policy makers both in the field of energy and environmental programming.
In terms of scientific impact, the aim is to improve the state of the art in the following areas of research:
- Stochastic dynamic models in the field of energy and environment;
- Applications of economic models to energy decision-making processes – environmental.
In terms of economic and social impact, it is intended to provide tools for green energy transition policies. The study of uncertainty should make it possible to better evaluate the choices made by political decision-makers in a perspective.