Technology Elicitations and Modeling Project – TEaM

The purpose of the TEaM project is to develop a framework for:

• integrating the large and growing data sources on technology supply derived from expert elicitations with each other and with other relevant data on technology supply; and
• communicating the integrated data in a way that is useful to IAM modelers.
  Innovation is not a deterministic process, hence it is important to include uncertainty when accounting for endogenous technical change. This is particularly relevant when innovation concerns energy technologies and their potential impact on the feasibility and cost of climate policies.

Energy technology portfolio analysis includes three core elements: (i) collection of probabilistic information on the uncertain linkage between RD&D investments and particular improvements in science and technology, often measured by lower future technology costs or higher performance of specific technologies; (ii) assessment of the implications or benefits, of these improvements, which might include economic benefits, environmental benefits, or security benefits; and (iii) the application of decision-analytic, portfolio-based, or other informal frameworks for synthesizing (i) and (ii) to inform decisions.

The TEaM project aims to link research groups working on the three core elements by providing:

• A common platform where collected data on probabilistic energy innovation and the role of RD&D is unified and made available to modelers.
• A harmonized set of exercises to be performed by integrated assessment modeling groups to assess implication of technological improvements.
• A discussion of the decision-analytic tools available with specific attention focused on conveying the key messages to policy makers and stakeholders.