Mediterranean Ocean Forecasting System: Towards Environmental Predictions – MFSTEP
This project entails oceanographic measurements, and seeks to predict and estimate the impact of chemical and oil spills occurring during ocean transport. FEEM’s workplan consists of two major objectives. First, to examine the literature that has modelled oil or chemical spills into the ocean, and has related the probability of a spill to weather, currents, ship characteristics, and to monitoring activity on the part of the Coast Guard. Empirical estimation of oil and accident models might rely on databases maintained by the US Department of Transportation and by the Université Catholique de Louvain.
The MFSTEP Project aims at the further development of an operational forecasting system for the Mediterranean Sea based upon three main components:
- the Near Real Time Observing system;
- the numerical forecasting systems at basin scale and for regional areas;
- the forecast products dissemination/exploitation system.
The project entails oceanographic measurements, and seeks to predict and estimate the impact of chemical and oil spills occurring during ocean transport.
The project is coordinated by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV, Italy). FEEM’s role in this project will consist of two major objectives.
First, to examine the literature that has modeled oil or chemical spills into the ocean, and has related the probability of a spill to weather, currents, ship characteristics, and to monitoring activity on the part of the Coast Guard. Empirical estimation of oil and accident models might rely on databases maintained by the US Department of Transportation and by the Universite’ Catholique de Louvain.
Next, the research team of FEEM will rely on various techniques for estimating the monerary damages to natural resources, such as the travel cost method and/or contingent valuation, from oil spills.
In particular, workpackage 13 deals with the exploitation of MFSTEP products. Within workpackage 13 the economic analysis, carried out by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, intends to provide the valuation of damages from oil spills. The following two types to damages from oil spills are considered:
- damages to fish and other market goods
- damages to natural resources (e.g. fauna, beaches, water quality, etc.) not traded in regular markets
The first kind of damages are experienced by commercial fishermen and can be computed by estimating supply functions before and after spills. Damages to natural resources, on the other side, are experienced by recreational angleers, beachgoers, residents of countries on the Mediterranean. To estimate these damages, non-market valuation methods are required, like contingent valuation and travel cost method. The objective of the economic analysis is to provide the value of commercial fisheries and other market goods, as well as the value of ocean natural resources. Contingent valuation method is a survey-based methodology for placing a value on a good and can estimate both use and non-use values of a resource. The basic premise of the travel cost technique is that the costs incurred by individuals in travelling to the site can be used as surrogate prices. This method is often used to assess the value of recreational sites.
The research relies on existing studies and on benefit transfers, which take the results of a valuation study from one context, and uses them to predict damages in other contexts.