V for vaccines and variants
Domenico Delli Gatti (Department of Economics and Finance, Complexity Lab in Economics, Catholic University and CESifo); Severin Reissl (RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment); Enrico Turco (Department of Economics and Finance, Catholic University and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)
E21, E22, E24, E27, I12, I15, I18
Agent-based models, Epidemic, Covid, Vaccination, Variant
Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Volume 33, 01 June 2023
In the context of the Covid-19 pandemic, we evaluate the effects of vaccines and virus variants on epidemiological and macroeconomic outcomes by means of Monte Carlo simulations of a macroeconomic-epidemiological agent-based model calibrated using data from the Lombardy region of Italy. From simulations we infer that vaccination plays the role of a mitigating factor, reducing the frequency and the amplitude of contagion waves and significantly improving macroeconomic performance with respect to a scenario without vaccination. The emergence of a variant, on the other hand, plays the role of an accelerating factor, leading to a deterioration of both epidemiological and macroeconomic outcomes and partly negating the beneficial impacts of the vaccine. A new and improved vaccine in turn can redress the situation. Vaccinations and variants, therefore, can be conceived of as drivers of an intertwined cycle impacting both epidemiological and macroeconomic developments.