The Evolving Geopolitics of North Africa and its Impact on Energy Markets
The Energy Scenarios and Policy FEEM Press series publishes the output of the Energy and Scenarios and Policy (ESP) research programme of Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. The ESP programme aims to carry out interdisciplinary, scientifically sound, prospective and policy-oriented applied research, targeted at political and business decision makers. This aim is achieved through an integrated quantitative and qualitative analysis of energy scenarios and policies. This innovative and interdisciplinary approach puts together the major factors driving the change in global energy dynamics (i.e. technology, economy, geopolitics and sociological aspects). The ESP programme applies this methodology to a wide range of issues (energy demand and supply, infrastructures, financing, market analyses, socio-economic impacts of energy policies) that are explored from economic, geopolitical and institutional perspectives.
Over the last five years, North Africa has profoundly changed. After the Arab Springs, the widespread instability engendered a power vacuum that has been filed mainly by jihadism. The emergence of the Islamic State as a regional actor fostered the process of transnationalization of the jihadist networks. This volume analyses the current geopolitical scenario and the potential consequences of these phenomena on the energy sector. In order to investigate the relationship between history and energy, the consequences of the Arab turmoil on the energy sector will be compared to the potential repercussions of a prolonged jihadist resurgence in the area. The hypothesis underlying the paper is that the Arab Springs and jihadism could lead to completely different consequences. The choice of analysing the two phenomena together responds to the need of increasing the awareness of the potential evolutions in the relationship between terrorism and energy.
FEEM Press, Energy Scenarios and Policy Series, 4/2016