In spite of abundant generation potential, as of 2019 East Africa has an electricity access level of 36%, with over 140 million people without service. Here, a bottom-up geospatial model (OnSSET) is used to estimate least-cost pathways to universal access to electricity by 2030 for different consumption-tier objectives under three regional grid electricity generation mix scenarios. Results suggest median total required investments of $57 and $110 billion for guaranteeing basic (160 and 44 kWh/person/year in urban and rural areas) and moderate – i.e. including potential to enable some productive uses – (423 and 160 kWh/person/year) consumption for newly connected households by 2030, respectively. This corresponds to an average of $5.6 billion/year, and implies median capacity additions of 12.2 GW (59% on-grid, 37% mini-grids, and 4% standalone solutions). At least further $2.7 billion/year in generation capacity are required to satisfy the projected demand growth from already electrified consumers. A grid electricity scenario with 25% lower photovoltaic costs and a higher penetration of renewables reveals to be up to 10% cheaper and 46% less carbon-intensive, while also requiring less up-front investment. To achieve such objectives, investment must be channelled within an enabling policy environment, which we discuss.

In spite of abundant generation potential, as of 2019 East Africa has an electricity access level of 36%, with over 140 million people without service. Here, a bottom-up geospatial model (OnSSET) is used to estimate least-cost pathways to universal access to electricity by 2030 for different consumption-tier objectives under three regional grid electricity generation mix scenarios. Results suggest median total required investments of $57 and $110 billion for guaranteeing basic (160 and 44 kWh/person/year in urban and rural areas) and moderate – i.e. including potential to enable some productive uses – (423 and 160 kWh/person/year) consumption for newly connected households by 2030, respectively. This corresponds to an average of $5.6 billion/year, and implies median capacity additions of 12.2 GW (59% on-grid, 37% mini-grids, and 4% standalone solutions). At least further $2.7 billion/year in generation capacity are required to satisfy the projected demand growth from already electrified consumers. A grid electricity scenario with 25% lower photovoltaic costs and a higher penetration of renewables reveals to be up to 10% cheaper and 46% less carbon-intensive, while also requiring less up-front investment. To achieve such objectives, investment must be channelled within an enabling policy environment, which we discuss.