Modeling the potential impacts of climate change on wheat yield in Iran: Evidence from national and provincial data analysis
Parisa Pakrooh (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Muhamad Abdul Kamal (Department of Economics, Abdul Wali Khan University Mardan)
Climate change, Carbon, De Martonne Aridity Index, Wheat, Iran
Economic Modelling, Vol 486, December 2023, 106352
Wheat is one of the essential food resources, and its cultivation is one of Iran’s most vulnerable activities to climate change. In this context, this study aims to unravel the effects of climate change on both irrigated and rain-fed types of wheat yield in Iran and across different regions to provide valuable insights to researchers, policymakers, and farmers. The study will assist in comprehending the adaption and spatial difference effects of climate change on wheat yield. For this purpose, provinces were classified into two climate types based on the De Martonne Aridity Index. The Feasible generalized least squares model was then employed to data from 28 Iranian provinces over the period 2001 to 2019. The index results show that most provinces are in the arid climate group, while the rest are in the semi-arid group. Our findings for the country indicated that changes in climate factors could have positive and negative effects on wheat yield, with results varying by region. Both wheat varieties are acclimated to climate change’s effects, and the coefficients of climate factors from 2001 to 2019 are smaller than those from 2008 to 2019. Conversely, semi-arid provinces’ irrigated and rain-fed wheat yields were not adapted to the impact of temperature and participation level changes, while irrigated and rain-fed wheat yields were adapted to carbon emissions. In arid provinces, temperature coefficients for rain-fed wheat yield increased from -1.68 to -2.90, while for irrigated type, coefficients decreased from -0.32 to -0.22. The yield of irrigated wheat has not adapted to changes in carbon emissions and precipitation levels. The study’s findings can be useful to policymakers and farmers as they plan and alter crop farming to adapt to the effects of changing climate conditions.