Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles
16.07.2018
David L. McCollum (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASA, Howard H. Baker Jr. Center for Public Policy – University of Tennessee); Charlie Wilson (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASA, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research – University of East Anglia); Michela Bevione (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Economic analysis of Climate Impacts and Policy Division ECIP – Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC);  Samuel Carrara (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Economic analysis of Climate Impacts and Policy Division ECIP – Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC); Oreane Y. Edelenbosch (Climate, Air and Energy Department – PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development – Utrecht University); Johannes Emmerling (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Economic analysis of Climate Impacts and Policy Division ECIP – Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC); Céline Guivarch (Ecole des Ponts – Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement CIRED); Panagiotis Karkatsoulis (E3MLab/Institute of Communications and Computer Systems – National Technical University of Athens); Ilkka Keppo (UCL Energy Institute – University College London); Volker Krey (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASA); Zhenhong Lin (Center for Transportation Analysis – Oak Ridge National Laboratory ORNL, Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering – University of Tennessee); Eoin Ó Broin (Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement CIRED & Société de Mathématiques Appliquées et de Sciences Humaines SMASH); Leonidas Paroussos (E3MLab/Institute of Communications and Computer Systems – National Technical University of Athens); Hazel Pettifor (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research – University of East Anglia); Kalai Ramea (Institute of Transportation Studies – University of California); Keywan Riahi (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IASA, Institute of Thermal Engineering – Graz University of Technology, Payne Institute – Colorado School of Mines); Fuminori Sano (Systems Analysis Group – Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth RITE): Baltazar Solano Rodriguez (UCL Energy Institute – University College London); Detlef P. van Vuuren (Climate, Air and Energy Department – PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development – Utrecht University)
Nature Energy, 3, pages664–673(2018)
Burgeoning demands for mobility and private vehicle ownership undermine global efforts to reduce energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. Advanced vehicles powered by low-carbon sources of electricity or hydrogen offer an alternative to conventional fossil-fuelled technologies. Yet, despite ambitious pledges and investments by governments and automakers, it is by no means clear that these vehicles will ultimately reach mass-market consumers. Here, we develop state-of-the-art representations of consumer preferences in multiple global energy-economy models, specifically focusing on the non-financial preferences of individuals. We employ these enhanced model formulations to analyse the potential for a low-carbon vehicle revolution up to 2050. Our analysis shows that a diverse set of measures targeting vehicle buyers is necessary to drive widespread adoption of clean technologies. Carbon pricing alone is insufficient to bring low-carbon vehicles to the mass market, though it may have a supporting role in ensuring a decarbonized energy supply.
Burgeoning demands for mobility and private vehicle ownership undermine global efforts to reduce energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. Advanced vehicles powered by low-carbon sources of electricity or hydrogen offer an alternative to conventional fossil-fuelled technologies. Yet, despite ambitious pledges and investments by governments and automakers, it is by no means clear that these vehicles will ultimately reach mass-market consumers. Here, we develop state-of-the-art representations of consumer preferences in multiple global energy-economy models, specifically focusing on the non-financial preferences of individuals. We employ these enhanced model formulations to analyse the potential for a low-carbon vehicle revolution up to 2050. Our analysis shows that a diverse set of measures targeting vehicle buyers is necessary to drive widespread adoption of clean technologies. Carbon pricing alone is insufficient to bring low-carbon vehicles to the mass market, though it may have a supporting role in ensuring a decarbonized energy supply.