Implications of Emissions Limitation Protocols and Concentration Stabilisation Trajectories for Developing (Non-Annex I) Countries
Pryadarshi R. Shukla
Climate Change and Sustainable Development
The ultimate objective of the Framework Convention on Climate Change is the stabilisation of greenhouse gases concentration in the atmosphere at a level that will prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. A specified stabilisation concentration level can be achieved by infinite emissions trajectories. The analysis in this paper considers two well known emission trajectories (WGI, Working Group I of the IPCC and WRE, Wigley, Richels and Edmonds) and three protocols (Two extremes of the Dutch proposal and a medium case of the French proposal). Since most models are developed in the Annex I nations, they tend to determine the socioeconomic dynamics of Non Annex I nations on lines similar to those of Annex I nations, missing the vital differences among nations, regions and especially between industrialised nations (Annex I) and the developing world (Non-Annex I). A robust climate change agreement should call for participation of all major consituents, and Non-Annex I nations are a very important block. The aim of this paper is to generate information and analysis which highlight the implications of proposed protocols for the Non-Annex I nations and help in arriving at a widely acceptable and implementable climate change agreement.