A multi-disciplinary approach to estimate the medium-term impact of COVID-19 on transport and energy: A case study for Italy
Davide Bazzana (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Università degli Studi di Brescia); Jed J. Cohen (Salt River Prokect-Integrated System Planning and Support); Nicolò Golinucci (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Politecnico di Milano); Manfred Hafner (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, SciencesPo – Paris School of International Affairs PSIA, Johns Hopkins University – School of Advanced International Studies SAIS-Europe); Michel Noussan (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, SciencesPo – Paris School of International Affairs PSIA); Johannes Reichl (Energieinstitut an der Johannes Kepler Universität Linz); Matteo Vincenzo Rocco (Politecnico di Milano); Alessandro Sciullo (IRES Piemonte – Istituto di Ricerche Economico Sociali del Piemonte, Università degli Studi di Torino); Sergio Vergalli (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Università degli Studi di Brescia)
Energy Volume 238, Part C, 1 January 2022, 122015
The aim of this paper is to estimate the potential impacts of different COVID-19 scenarios on the Italian energy sector through 2030, with a specific focus on transport and industry. The analysis takes a multi-disciplinary approach to properly consider the complex interactions of sectors across Italy. This approach includes the assessment of economic conditions using macroeconomic and input-output models, modelling the evolution of the energy system using an energy and transport model, and forecasting the reaction of travel demand and modal choice using econometric models and expert interviews. Results show that the effect of COVID-19 pandemic may lead to mid-term effects on energy consumption. The medium scenario, which assumes a stop of the emergency by the end of 2021, shows that energy-related emissions remain 10% lower than the baseline in the industry sector and 6% lower in the transport sector by 2030, when compared with a pre-COVID trend. Policy recommendations to support a green recovery are discussed in light of the results.