Milan, Italy – Impacts of Natural Disasters on a Dynamic Economy

Michael Ghil, affiliated to Ecole Normale Supérieure of Paris and to University of California, presents a modeling framework to describe the interfaces between human activities and the functioning of the earth system in the presence of endogenous business cycle dynamics based on a non-equilibrium dynamic model. In comparing the theoretical findings with observational data, the authors demonstrate that the behavior of the U.S. economy changes significantly between intervals of growth and recession, with higher volatility during expansions.