FEEM seminar on: “Modeling Awareness & Decision Making: The Case of Climate Change and Water Resources”
We can classify future problems and their contingencies into 3 level of increasing unawareness: White Swans, Grey Swans and Black Swans (Taleb 2007). White Swans are problems with known sets of probable outcomes and contingencies (i.e. complete awareness). Grey Swans are problems that are known and we are aware that the complete set of outcomes and contingencies is unknown. Black Swan problems involve unforeseen problems (i.e. totally unaware).
Climate change is a classic Grey Swan.