The drivers behind crude oil production behaviors: an investigation on OPEC and non-OPEC producers
13:00 - 14:30
In this study we investigate the determinant factors, including economic and political ones that impact on crude oil production of OPEC members and non-OPEC producers. To achieve this goal, we develop two multivariate production models: the first one investigates the determinant factors behind crude oil production of OPEC member countries, and the second one examines the determinant factors behind crude oil production of non-OPEC producers.
In both models, crude oil production is considered as a dependent variable, followed by a set of explanatory variables such as real crude oil prices, crude oil production by OPEC nations, OPEC quota, domestic investment needs, and crude oil proven reserves; moreover, we consider a group of political events such as wars, revolutions and etc., as exogenous variables of both models. We examine them applying the ARDL bounds testing approach for cointegration. The OPEC countries under this study include Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Libya and Qatar; and non-OPEC countries include Canada, China, Egypt, Mexico, Norway, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom, and the United States.