In the frame of the 2009 EU directive promoting the use of energy from renewable energy sources, Italy has reached 6 years in advance its 2020 target of a 17% share of renewable energy in the final energy consumption. In this study we evaluate the existing renewable energy mix in Italy by confronting it to the optimized scenario of renewable energy capacity and allowing full decommissioning of the currently installed renewable energy plants. Such repowering action analysis is based on the HyMeX/MED-CORDEX hindcast simulations performed over the 1989-2012 period and plugged into an “impact” model which simulates renewable and conventional energy production as well as the Italian electrical consumption at both country scale and regional scales. The optimal energy mix is then inferred from a meanvariance analysis, inspired by Markowitz’s modern portfolio theory, under three alternative scenarios: the first scenario considers the Italian electrical network as a unique electrical region; the second scenario takes into account the existence of 6 inter-connected electrical regions and the third scenario maximizes the profitability of the renewable energy plants. Confrontation with the Italian actual energy mix shows that on average the actual and simulated energy mix are similar with a 70% share of photovoltaics energy production and a 30% share of wind energy production. However, differences in the spatial deployment of photovoltaics and wind energy technologies exist between the actual and simulated installed capacities.

This seminar has been jointly organized by FEEM and IEFE, Bocconi University.