Commodity supercycle or financialization
12:00 - 13:30
Historically elevated commodity prices, particularly oil prices, have prompted an ongoing debate over whether high commodity (oil) prices are the result of tight fundamentals or pure financial speculation. While we have observed an increase in the financialization of commodity markets, the weight of the existing evidence is that financialization is not the main explanation behind the increase in oil prices over the last decade. Starting in 2003 and more strongly after 2004, we would argue that given the low price elasticities of supply and demand, a demand shock,originating in China and other emerging market economies, pushed upward the prices of most commodities, including non-exchange traded commodities. However, given the recent deceleration in growth in China, market participants have started debating whether the super-cycle that started in the early 2000s is over or about to end. However, we argue that that the current commodity price super-cycle is not yet over.