Using the example of the UK and taking account of ongoing climate change, we develop spatially explicit models of the relationship between land use and the production of both market priced agricultural outputs and various non-market goods including emissions and sequestration of greenhouse gases, open-access recreational visits, urban green space (all of which are assessed using economic valuation methods) and wild species diversity (which, due to a lack of robust value estimates, is considered in terms of the costs of attaining specified targets). By considering a range of user-specified scenarios for future land use we show that decisions which focus solely upon increasing the market value of agriculture can result in overall losses when other impacts are considered, but that significant value increases can be obtained from targeted planning incorporating all of the affected values. We then investigate the potential for moving away from reliance upon user-specified scenarios towards an optimal allocation approach in which land use reflects underlying values of goods and services. We illustrate the latter approach through an application examining the case for extending the amount of woodland in the UK.

This seminar has been jointly organized by CMCC and FEEM.