Crisi russo-ucraina: analisi di scenario per il sistema elettrico italiano
Filippo Del Grosso (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Ilaria Livi (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Federico Pontoni (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Edoardo Somenzi (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)
English title: Implications of the Russian-Ukrainian Crisis on the Italian Electric Power System: A Scenario Analysis
This Policy Brief highlights the outcomes of a short-term simulation scenario conducted on the Italian energetic system. The war in Ukraine currently represents an imminent risk factor for the national energy security with possible shortage, or even restrictions, on Italian gas imports from Russia. In the ‘Crisis Scenario’ elaborated by Eni Enrico Mattei Foundation (FEEM), Russia’s gas supplies are assumed to be completely stopped between March 2022 and the end of the next winter season. These outcomes are then compared to a ‘Business As Usual’ (BAU) scenario in order to evaluate the capacity of the energy system to provide electricity to the grid, while maintaining high standards in terms of security and reliability in the absence of Russian gas. Fundamental assumptions for the Scenario Analysis are the following: i) the available gas supplies are primarily used for powering the electric generation system in emergency mode; ii) the unavailability of electricity’s imports from third countries; iii) the continuity of GME’s operations, signalling gas shortage with price fluctuations. By replacing gas-fired thermoelectric production with cheaper coal and biomass generated electricity, the simulations’ results show that the national energy system is able to cover electricity demand. However, gas shortages and high prices might trigger increasing electricity’s price and carbon emissions. Finally, securing the national electric system would imply severe gas shortages for industrial facilities and civilian buildings. Therefore, policymakers might find themeselves struggling with burdensome rationing measures for the electricity system.