FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series
2014 .091

Energy Technology Expert Elicitations for Policy: Workshops, Modeling, and Meta-analysis

Autori: Laura Diaz Anadon, Valentina Bosetti, Gabriel Chan, Gregory Nemet and Elena Verdolini
Serie: Climate Change and Sustainable Development
Parole chiave: Expert Elicitations, Energy Technology Innovation, Public R&D, Meta-analysis, Optimization
Numero JEL: O32, Q40


Characterizing the future performance of energy technologies can improve the development of energy policies that have net benefits under a broad set of future conditions. In particular, decisions about public investments in research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) that promote technological change can benefit from (1) an explicit consideration of the uncertainty inherent in the innovation process and (2) a systematic evaluation of the tradeoffs in investment allocations across different technologies.  To shed light on these questions, over the past five years several groups in the United States and Europe have conducted expert elicitations and modeled the resulting societal benefits.  In this paper, we discuss the lessons learned from the design and implementation of these initiatives in four respects. First, we discuss lessons from the development of ten energy-technology expert elicitation protocols, highlighting the challenge of matching elicitation design with a particular modeling tool.  Second, we report insights from the use of expert elicitations to optimize RD&D investment portfolios. These include a discussion of the rate of decreasing marginal returns to research, the optimal level of overall investments, and the sensitivity of results to policy scenarios and selected metrics for evaluation.  Third, we discuss the effect of combining online elicitation tools with in-person group discussions on the usefulness of the results. Fourth, we summarize the results of a meta-analysis of elicited data across research groups to identify the association between expert characteristics and elicitation results.


Suggested citation: Diaz Anadon, L., V. Bosetti, G. Chan, G. Nemet, E. Verdolini, (2014), 'Energy Technology Expert Elicitations for Policy: Workshops, Modeling, and Meta-analysis', Nota di Lavoro 91.2014, Milan, Italy: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.

This paper has also been published as Belfer Center Discussion Paper 2014-08.


Download file
Scarica il file PDF

FEEM Newsletter & Update

Iscriviti per rimanere aggiornato.

I Suoi dati saranno trattati dalla Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. – Titolare del trattamento – per ricevere via posta elettronica Newsletter & Update della Fondazione. Il conferimento dell’indirizzo e-mail è necessario alla fornitura del servizio. La invitiamo a consultare la Privacy Policy per ottenere maggiori informazioni a tutela dei Suoi diritti.

Questo Sito utilizza cookie tecnici e analytics, nonché consente l’invio di cookie di profilazione di terze parti.
Chiudendo questo banner o comunque proseguendo la navigazione sul Sito manifesti il tuo consenso all’uso dei cookie. Per ulteriori informazioni e per esprimere scelte selettive in ordine all’uso dei cookie vedi la   Cookie PolicyOk