FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro"
2017.038
Data: 21/6/2017

Challenges and Opportunities for Integrated Modeling of Climate Engineering


Autori:
Massimo Tavoni (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Politecnico di Milano); Valentina Bosetti (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bocconi University); Soheil Shayegh (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Laurent Drouet (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici); Johannes Emmerling (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici); Sabine Fuss (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change); Timo Goeschl (University of Heidelberg); Celine Guivarch (CIRED); Thomas S. Lontzek (RWTH Aachen University); Vassiliki Manoussi (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Juan Moreno-Cruz (School of Economics and Brook Byers Institute for Sustainability Studies - Georgia Institute of Technology); Helene Muri (University of Oslo); Martin Quaas (Kiel University); Wilfried Rickels (Kiel University for the World Economy)
Numero JEL: Q5, Q55
Parole chiave: Climate Engineering, Paris Agreement, Carbon Dioxide Removal, Solar Radiation Management, Integrated Assessment Models

Abstract

The Paris Agreement has set stringent temperature targets to limit global warming to 2°C above preindustrial level, with efforts to stay well below 2°C. At the same time, its bottom-up approach with voluntary national contributions makes the implementation of these ambitious targets particularly challenging. Climate engineering – both through carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and solar radiation management (SRM) – is currently discussed to potentially complement mitigation and adaptation. Results from integrated assessment models already suggest a significant role for some forms of climate engineering in achieving stringent climate objectives1. However, these estimates and their underlying assumptions are uncertain and currently heavily debated2–4. By reviewing the existing literature and reporting the views of experts, we identify research gaps and priorities for improving the integrated assessment of climate engineering. Results point to differentiated roles of CDR and SRM as complementary strategies to the traditional ones, as well as diverse challenges for an adequate representation in integrated assessment models. We identify potential synergies for model development which can help better represent mitigation and adaptation challenges, as well as climate engineering.

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Suggested citation: Tavoni, M., V. Bosetti, S. Shayegh, L. Drouet, J. Emmerling, S. Fuss, T. Goeschl, C. Guivarch, T. S. Lontzek, V. Manoussi, J. Moreno-Cruz, H. Muri, M. Quaas, W. Rickels, (2017), 'Challenges and Opportunities for Integrated Modeling of Climate Engineering', Nota di Lavoro 38.2017, Milan, Italy: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei

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