February 26 2012

FEEM-IEFE seminar on Modeling ambiguity in expert elicitation surveys

How can policy makers deal with conflicting expert recommendations? In this seminar the authors propose a simple decision-theoretic framework that takes into account ambiguity over expert opinion.

The model is intuitive, captures decision makers' ambiguity attitudes, and enables simple sensitivity analysis across levels of ambiguity. It is subsequently applied to original data from a recent expert elicitation survey on the potential of solar-technology R&D.

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei

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