This talk presents the long-term global energy technology diffusion patterns required to reach a stringent climate change target. If for example the maximum average atmospheric temperature increase is to be limited to 2°C, total CO2 emissions have to be reduced massively, so as to reach substantial negative values during the second half of the century. Particularly power sector CO2 emissions should become deeply negative from around 2050 onwards in order to compensate for GHG emissions in other sectors where abatement is more costly. The annual additional capacity deployment intensity (expressed in GW/yr) for solar and wind energy until 2030 needs to be around that recently observed for coal-based power plants, and will have to be several times higher in the period 2030-2050. The aggregated low-carbon energy system cost requirements on the supply side until 2050 may amount to about 50 trillion US$. Special focus in this presentation is given to electricity generation, but also the possible implications for the transport sector are presented.

This seminar has been jointly organized by CMCC and FEEM.