FEEM Research Seminar on "Climate, conflict and forced migration"
12:30 - 14:00
Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei
Corso Magenta 63
video-conference (at FEEM Venice) and GoToMeeting broadcast available
h. 12.30 Seminar
In Milan a light lunch will follow the seminar for registered participants.
Raya Muttarak, School of International Development, University of East Anglia, UK and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria
Despite the lack of robust empirical evidence, a growing number of media reports attempt to link climate change to the ongoing violent conflicts in Syria and other parts of the world, as well as to the migration crisis in Europe. Exploiting bilateral data on asylum seeking applications for 157 countries over the period 2006-2015, we assess the determinants of refugee flows using a gravity model which accounts for endogenous selection in order to examine the causal link between climate, conflict and forced migration. Our results indicate that climatic conditions, by affecting drought severity and the likelihood of armed conflict, played a significant role as an explanatory factor for asylum seeking in the period 2011-2015.