This seminar is based on a paper co-authored by Valentina Bosetti and Cristina Cattaneo.

Climate change through a gradual warming, changes in precipitation pattern and the intensification of extreme events such as flood, droughts, storm or extreme hit, may be the cause of the displacement of many people from the areas affected. The objective of this paper is to empirically estimate if these inflows of climate-induced migrants increase the risk of civil conflicts in receiving areas. Using data from 1960 to 2000, we predict the number of migrants leaving the country of origin for climate-related reasons. We then use these predicted flows as a control in a standard specification for civil wars and civil conflicts. The empirical estimates, which address a potential endogeneity bias through 2SLS estimations, show that climate-induced migrants are not an additional determinant of civil conflicts and civil wars. Finally, the paper discusses possible explanations for this and highlights important future research directions.

This seminar has been jointly organized by FEEM and CMCC.