Comparison of macroeconomic models for disaster impact analysis
12:00 - 13:30
Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei
Isola di San Giorgio Maggiore
at FEEM Milan
h. 12.00 Seminar
Elco Koks, Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University Amsterdam
Seminars Office, email@example.com
Due to a changing climate and an increasing world population exposed to natural hazards and extreme weather events, the urge to develop models to assess the economic losses of disasters has increased tremendously. In this urge, not just a large amount of models have been developed, but also a large variety of models. While the most common economic models for disaster impact analysis are Input-Output (I-O) and Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models, there is an increasing group of scholars who develop more hybrid approaches; combining either these two approaches or one of these approach with different (non-economic) methods.
In this seminar, I will first elaborate on the current state of research in the field of disaster impact modelling. Second, I will present the results of an extensive sensitivity analysis of a disaster impact model, which has shown two important implications for disaster modelers and practitioners: (i) high-probability events are qualitatively different from low-probability events in terms of the scale of damages and full recovery period and (ii) there are substantial differences in parameter influence between high-probability and low-probability flood modeling. These findings suggest that a detailed approach is required when assessing the flood risk for a specific region. Third, I will present a newly developed high-detail interregional impact assessment model, showing how the European economy can be affected due to a natural disaster.
Finally, I will present the first results of the research that has been done here at FEEM regarding the comparison of the several developed disaster impact models. This studies tries to find the main commonalities and differences between different impact models. In this study, we try to find an answer to which model can be applied best for which research question? And more specifically, how should the outcomes of one model be interpreted subject to the outcomes of other (similar) models?