FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series
2006 .086

The Impact of Climate Change on Domestic and International Tourism: A Simulation Study

Authors: Andrea Bigano, Jacqueline M. Hamilton, Richard S.J. Tol
Series: Climate Change and Sustainable Development
Editor: Carlo Carraro
Type: Journal
Keywords: Climate Change, International Tourism, Domestic Tourism
JEL n.: L83, Q54
JEL: The Integrated Assessment Journal, Bridging Sciences & Policy
Pages: Vol. 7, Iss. 1, Pp. 25–49
Date: 2007


We use an updated and extended version of the Hamburg Tourism Model to simulate
the effect of development and climate change on tourism. Model extensions are the
explicit modelling of domestic tourism and the inclusion of tourist expenditures. We
also use the model to examine the impact of sea level rise on tourism demand. Climate
change would shift patterns of tourism towards higher altitudes and latitudes. Domestic
tourism may double in colder countries and fall by 20% in warmer countries (relative to
the baseline without climate change). For some countries international tourism may
treble whereas for others it may cut in half. International tourism is more (less)
important than is domestic tourism in colder (warmer) places. Therefore, climate change
may double tourist expenditures in colder countries, and halve them in warmer
countries. In most places, the impact of climate change is small compared to the impact
of population and economic growth. The quantitative results are sensitive to parameter
choices, but the qualitative pattern is robust.

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