FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series
2006 .086

The Impact of Climate Change on Domestic and International Tourism: A Simulation Study


Authors: Andrea Bigano, Jacqueline M. Hamilton, Richard S.J. Tol
Series: Climate Change and Sustainable Development
Editor: Carlo Carraro
Type: Journal
Keywords: Climate Change, International Tourism, Domestic Tourism
JEL n.: L83, Q54
JEL: The Integrated Assessment Journal, Bridging Sciences & Policy
Pages: Vol. 7, Iss. 1, Pp. 25–49
Date: 2007

Abstract

We use an updated and extended version of the Hamburg Tourism Model to simulate
the effect of development and climate change on tourism. Model extensions are the
explicit modelling of domestic tourism and the inclusion of tourist expenditures. We
also use the model to examine the impact of sea level rise on tourism demand. Climate
change would shift patterns of tourism towards higher altitudes and latitudes. Domestic
tourism may double in colder countries and fall by 20% in warmer countries (relative to
the baseline without climate change). For some countries international tourism may
treble whereas for others it may cut in half. International tourism is more (less)
important than is domestic tourism in colder (warmer) places. Therefore, climate change
may double tourist expenditures in colder countries, and halve them in warmer
countries. In most places, the impact of climate change is small compared to the impact
of population and economic growth. The quantitative results are sensitive to parameter
choices, but the qualitative pattern is robust.

Download file
Download PDF file

FEEM Update

Subscribe to stay connected.

Your personal data will be processed by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. – data Controller – with the aim of emailing the FEEM newsletter. The use of Your email address is necessary for the implementation of the newsletter service. You are invited to read the Privacy Policy in order to obtain additional information about the protection of Your rights.

This Website uses technical cookies and cookie analytics, as well as “third party” profiling cookies.
If you close this banner or you decide to continue navigating on this Website, you express consent to the use of cookies. If you need additional information or you wish to express selective choices on the use of cookies, please refer to the   Cookie PolicyI agree