FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series
2016 .023

Macroeconomic and Financial Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Evidence for the Euro Area


Authors: Claudio Morana
Series: Energy Scenarios and Policy
Editor: Manfred Hafner
Keywords: Oil Price Shocks, Oil Price-macroeconomy Relationship, Risk Factors, Semiparametric Dynamic Conditional Correlation Model, Time-varying Parameter Models
JEL n.: E30, E50, C32

Abstract

The paper investigates the macroeconomic and financial effects of oil prices shocks in the euro area since its creation in 1999, with a special focus on the recent slump. The analysis is carried out episode by episode, within a time-varying parameter framework, consistent with the view that "not all the oil price shocks are alike", yet without imposing any a priori identification assumption. We find evidence of recessionary effects triggered not only by oil price hikes, but also by oil price slumps in some cases, likewise for the most recent episode, which is also rising deflation risk and financial distress. In addition through uncertainty effects, the current slump might then be depressing aggregate demand by increasing the real interest rate, as ECB monetary policy is already conducted at the zero lower bound. The increase in real money balances following the slump points to the accommodation of the shock by the ECB, concurrent with the implementation of the Quantitative Easing policy (Q.E.). Yet, in so far as Q.E failed to generate inflationary expectations within the current and expected environment of soft oil prices, the case for a more expansionary use of fiscal policy than in the past would become compelling, in order to counteract the deflationary and recessionary threats to the euro area.

***

Suggested citation: Morana, C., (2016), 'Macroeconomic and Financial Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Evidence for the Euro Area',  Nota di Lavoro  23.2016, Milan, Italy: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei

Download file
Download PDF file

FEEM Update

Subscribe to stay connected.

Your personal data will be processed by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. – data Controller – with the aim of emailing the FEEM newsletter. The use of Your email address is necessary for the implementation of the newsletter service. You are invited to read the Privacy Policy in order to obtain additional information about the protection of Your rights.

This Website uses technical cookies and cookie analytics, as well as “third party” profiling cookies.
If you close this banner or you decide to continue navigating on this Website, you express consent to the use of cookies. If you need additional information or you wish to express selective choices on the use of cookies, please refer to the   Cookie PolicyI agree