FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series
2014 .029

Global Energy Security under Different Climate Policies, GDP Growth Rates and Fossil Resource Availabilities


Authors: Aleh Cherp, Jessica Jewell, Vadim Vinichenko, Nico Bauer, Enrica De Cian
Series: Climate Change and Sustainable Development
Editor: Carlo Carraro
Type: Journal
Keywords: Energy Security, Energy Scenarios, Long-Term Climate Policies, Fossil Resources Assumptions
JEL n.: Q4, Q5, Q51
JEL: Climatic Change
Date: 11/2013

Abstract

Energy security is one of the main drivers of energy policies. Understanding energy security implications of long-term scenarios is crucial for informed policy making, especially with respect to transformations of energy systems required to stabilize climate change. This paper evaluates the global energy security under several global energy scenarios, modeled in the REMIND and WITCH integrated assessment models. The paper examines the effects of long-term climate policies on energy security under different assumptions about GDP growth and fossil fuel availability. It uses a systematic energy security assessment framework and a set of global and regional indicators for risks associated with energy trade and resilience associated with diversity of energy options. The analysis shows that climate policies significantly reduce the risks and increase the resilience of energy systems in the first half of the century. Climate policies also make energy supply, energy mix, and energy trade less dependent upon assumptions of fossil resource availability and GDP growth, and thus more predictable than in the baseline scenarios.

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Suggested citation: Cherp, Aleh, Jewell, Jessica, Vinichenko, Vadim, Bauer, Nico, De Cian, Enrica, Global Energy Security under Different Climate Policies, GDP Growth Rates and Fossil Resource Availabilities, J Climatic Change, November 2013,  http://dx.doi.org/10.1007%2Fs10584-013-0950-x  

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