FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro"
2019.029
Date: 10/12/2019

Fertility Transitions in Developing Countries: Convergence, Timing, and Causes


Authors: Erasmo Papagni (University of Campania L. Vanvitelli, Global Labor Organization)
JEL n.: J11, J13, I15, I25, C26
Keywords: Fertility, Demographic Trends, Female Education

Abstract

This paper studies the dynamics of fertility in 180 countries in theperiod 1950-2015 and investigates the determinants of the onset of fertility transitions. We find evidence of convergence in three groups of countries, and distinguish the transitioning countries from those not transitioning. The estimation of the year of onset of the fertility transitionis followed by an econometric analysis of the causes of this event. Instrumental-variable estimates show that increasing female education and reduced infant mortality are important determinants of fertility decline, while per-capita GDP has probably worked in the opposite direction. These results are confirmed by the application of Lewbel's (2012) methods where identification is based on heteroskedasticity.

***

Suggested citation: Papagni, E. (2019), 'Fertility Transitions in Developing Countries: Convergence, Timing, and Causes', Nota di Lavoro 29.2019, Milano, Italy: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei

Download file
Download file

FEEM Newsletter & Update

Subscribe to stay connected.

Your data will be processed by FEEM - Eni Enrico Mattei Foundation - Data Controller - to receive the Foundation's Newsletter & Update via e-mail. To send the requested information, the Data Controller uses e-mail sending service providers established in the U.S.A .: for this, your consent to the transfer of your email address to the U.S.A. is required, without which it will not be possible to comply with your request. We invite you to consult the complete information to obtain detailed information to protect your rights.