External Publications
2017.03
Date: 16/1/2017

Sensitivity of projected long-term CO2 emissions across the Shared Socio-economic Pathways


Authors:

G. Marangoni (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Centro Euro-mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC, Department of Management and Economics - Politecnico di Milano); M. Tavoni (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Centro Euro-mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC, Department of Management and Economics - Politecnico di Milano); V. Bosetti (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Centro Euro-mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC, Department of Economics - Bocconi University); E. Borgonovo (Department of Economics - Bocconi University); P. Capros (National Technical University of Athens); O. Fricko (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASA); D. E. H. J. Gernaat (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Utrecht University - Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development); C. Guivarch (Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement CIRED, École des Ponts); P. Havlik (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASA); D. Huppmann (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASA); N. Johnson (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASA); P. Karkatsoulis (National Technical University of Athens); I. Keppo (University College London - UCL Energy Institute); V. Krey (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASA); E. Ó Broin (Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement CIRED); J. Price (University College London - UCL Energy Institute); D. P. van Vuuren (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Utrecht University - Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development)

Type: Journal
Published in: Nature Climate Change 7, 113–117 (2017) http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3199

Abstract

Scenarios showing future greenhouse gas emissions are needed to estimate climate impacts and the mitigation efforts required for climate stabilization. Recently, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) have been introduced to describe alternative social, economic and technical narratives, spanning a wide range of plausible futures in terms of challenges to mitigation and adaptation1. Thus far the key drivers of the uncertainty in emissions projections have not been robustly disentangled. Here we assess the sensitivities of future CO2 emissions to key drivers characterizing the SSPs. We use six state-of-the-art integrated assessment models with different structural characteristics, and study the impact of five families of parameters, related to population, income, energy efficiency, fossil fuel availability, and low-carbon energy technology development. A recently developed sensitivity analysis algorithm2 allows us to parsimoniously compute both the direct and interaction effects of each of these drivers on cumulative emissions. The study reveals that the SSP assumptions about energy intensity and economic growth are the most important determinants of future CO2 emissions from energy combustion, both with and without a climate policy. Interaction terms between parameters are shown to be important determinants of the total sensitivities.

links
Link
Sensitivity of projected long-term CO2 emissions across the Shared Socio-economic Pathways
links
Link
Watch the video presentation by FEEM researcher G. Marangoni

FEEM Newsletter & Update

Subscribe to stay connected.

Your data will be processed by FEEM - Eni Enrico Mattei Foundation - Data Controller - to receive the Foundation's Newsletter & Update via e-mail. To send the requested information, the Data Controller uses e-mail sending service providers established in the U.S.A .: for this, your consent to the transfer of your email address to the U.S.A. is required, without which it will not be possible to comply with your request. We invite you to consult the complete information to obtain detailed information to protect your rights.