In Search of the Causes of the Globalization Backlash: Methodological Considerations on Post-Treatment Bias
09.12.2024
Paolo Agnolin (Bocconi University, Duke University and Dondena Research Centre), Italo Colantone (Bocconi University, Baffi Research Centre, GREEN Research Centre, CESifo and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei), Piero Stanig (Bocconi University, Yale-NUS and NUS)
F1, F5
Globalization backlash, populism, radical right, post-treatment bias, causal mediation analysis
We study the implications of post-treatment bias in the context of the globalization backlash. We discuss whether horse-race regressions can inform about the relative role of economic vs. cultural drivers. We make three methodological points: (1) if and insofar as cultural variables are post-treatment with respect to economic factors, the estimates of the effect of economic shocks on voting are biased in regressions that include cultural controls (and vice versa); (2) for the same reason, such horse-race regressions do not allow to accurately estimate the relative role of economic vs. cultural factors; (3) one cannot infer mediation effects from changes in regression coefficients for a given factor of interest before and after including post-treatment controls. We accompany the methodological discussion with empirical evidence on the relevance of post-treatment bias in studies of the globalization backlash, both by replicating and expanding on earlier studies, and by presenting novel cross-country results on the culture-economy nexus.
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Citazione suggerita: P. Agnolin, I. Colantone. P. Stanig, ‘In Search of the Causes of the Globalization Backlash: Methodological Considerations on Post-Treatment Bias’, Nota di Lavoro 28.2024, Milano, Italia: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.