Causality and predictability in distribution: The ethanol–food price relation revisited
Data
31.03.2014
31.03.2014
Autori
Codice JEL
C22, C53, Q13, Q42, Q47
C22, C53, Q13, Q42, Q47
Parole chiave:
Biofuels, Ethanol, Field crops, Density forecasting, Granger causality, Quantiles
Biofuels, Ethanol, Field crops, Density forecasting, Granger causality, Quantiles
JOURNAL
"Energy Economics", Volume 42 (March 2014)
"Energy Economics", Volume 42 (March 2014)
This paper examines the relationship between biofuels, field crops and cattle prices in the U.S. from a new perspective. We focus on predictability in distribution by asking whether ethanol returns can be used to forecast different parts of field crops and cattle returns distribution, or vice versa. Density forecasts are constructed using Conditional Autoregressive Expectile models estimated with Asymmetric Least Squares. Forecast evaluation relies on quantile-weighed scoring rules, which identify regions of the distribution of interest to the analyst. Results show that both the centre and the left tail of the ethanol returns distribution can be predicted by using field crops returns. On the contrary, there is no evidence that ethanol can be used to forecast any region of the field crops or cattle returns distributions.