FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series
2015 .042

Decision Frameworks and the Investment in R&D


Autori: Erin Baker, Olaitan Olaleye, Lara Aleluia Reis
Serie: Climate Change and Sustainable Development
Editor: Carlo Carraro
Tipo: J
Parole chiave: Decision Making Under Uncertainty, Climate Change, Stabilization Pathways, Energy technology, Ambiguity Aversion
Numero JEL: Q42
JEL: Energy Policy
Pagine: Vol. 80, Pages 275-285
Data: 05/2015

Abstract

In this paper we provide an overview of decision frameworks aimed at crafting an energy technology Research & Development portfolio, based on the results of three large expert elicitation studies and a large scale energy-economic model. We introduce importance sampling as a technique for integrating elicitation data and large IAMs into decision making under uncertainty models.  We show that it is important to include both parts of this equation – the prospects for technological advancement and the interactions of the technologies in and with the economy. We find that investment in energy technology R&D is important even in the absence of climate policy. We illustrate the value of considering dynamic two-stage sequential decision models under uncertainty for identifying alternatives with option value. Finally, we consider two frameworks that incorporate ambiguity aversion. We suggest that these results may be best used to guide future research aimed at improving the set of elicitation data.


***
Suggested citation: Erin Baker, Olaitan Olaleye, Lara Aleluia Reis, Decision frameworks and the investment in R&D, Energy Policy, Volume 80, May 2015, Pages 275-285, ISSN 0301-4215, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.01.027.

Download file
Scarica il file PDF
links
Link

FEEM Newsletter

Iscriviti per rimanere aggiornato.

I Suoi dati saranno trattati dalla Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. – Titolare del trattamento – per ricevere via posta elettronica la newsletter della Fondazione. Il conferimento dell’indirizzo e-mail è necessario alla fornitura del servizio. La invitiamo a consultare la Privacy Policy per ottenere maggiori informazioni a tutela dei Suoi diritti.

Questo Sito utilizza cookie tecnici e analytics, nonché consente l’invio di cookie di profilazione di terze parti.
Chiudendo questo banner o comunque proseguendo la navigazione sul Sito manifesti il tuo consenso all’uso dei cookie. Per ulteriori informazioni e per esprimere scelte selettive in ordine all’uso dei cookie vedi la   Cookie PolicyOk