FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series
2010 .136

Beyond Copenhagen: A Realistic Climate Policy in a Fragmented World


Autori: Carlo Carraro, Emanuele Massetti
Serie: Climate Change and Sustainable Development
Editor: Carlo Carraro
Tipo: Journal
Parole chiave: Kyoto Protocol, International Climate Agreements, Climate Policy, Clean  Development Mechanism
Numero JEL: F5, Q01, Q54, Q58
JEL: Climatic Change
Pagine: Volume 110, Issue 3-4, pp 523-542
Data: 02/2012

Abstract

We propose a realistic approach to climate policy based on the Copenhagen Agreement to reduce Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) emissions. We assess by how much the non-binding, although official, commitments to reduce emissions made in Copenhagen will affect the level of world GHGs emissions in 2020. Our estimates are based on official communications to the UNFCCC, on historic data and on the Business-as-Usual scenario of the WITCH model. We are not interested in estimating the gap between the expected level of emissions and what would be needed to achieve the 2°C target. Nor do we attempt to calculate the 2100 temperature level implied by the Copenhagen pledges. We believe these two exercises are subject to high uncertainty and would not improve the current state of negotiations. Rather, we take stock of the present politically achievable level of commitment and suggest an effective way to push forward the climate policy agenda. The focus is on what can be done rather than on what should be done. To this end, we estimate the potential of the financial provisions of the Copenhagen Agreement to sponsor mitigation effort in Non-Annex I countries. Using scenarios produced with the WITCH model, we show that lower commitment on domestic abatement measures can be compensated by devoting roughly 50% of the Copenhagen financial provisions in 2020 to mitigation in Non-Annex I countries. The policy implications of our results will be discussed.

***

Suggested citation: Carlo Carraro and Emanuele Massetti, Beyond Copenhagen: a realistic climate policy in a fragmented world, Climatic Change (2012) 110:523–542
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0125-6

Download file
Scarica il file PDF
links
Link

FEEM Newsletter

Iscriviti per rimanere aggiornato.

I Suoi dati saranno trattati dalla Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. – Titolare del trattamento – per ricevere via posta elettronica la newsletter della Fondazione. Il conferimento dell’indirizzo e-mail è necessario alla fornitura del servizio. La invitiamo a consultare la Privacy Policy per ottenere maggiori informazioni a tutela dei Suoi diritti.

Questo Sito utilizza cookie tecnici e analytics, nonché consente l’invio di cookie di profilazione di terze parti.
Chiudendo questo banner o comunque proseguendo la navigazione sul Sito manifesti il tuo consenso all’uso dei cookie. Per ulteriori informazioni e per esprimere scelte selettive in ordine all’uso dei cookie vedi la   Cookie PolicyOk