External Publications
2018.10
Data: 25/6/2018

Residual fossil CO2 emissions in 1.5–2 °C pathways


Autori:

Gunnar Luderer (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research PIK, Member of the Leibniz Association); Zoi Vrontisi (Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering E3MLab - National Technical University of Athens); Christoph Bertram (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research PIK, Member of the Leibniz Association); Oreane Y. Edelenbosch (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development - Utrecht University); Robert C. Pietzcker (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research PIK, Member of the Leibniz Association); Joeri Rogelj (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASA, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science - ETH Zurich, Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment - University of Oxford, Grantham Institute - Imperial College London); Harmen Sytze De Boer (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development - Utrecht University); Laurent Drouet (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici); Johannes Emmerling (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici); Oliver Fricko (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASA); Shinichiro Fujimori (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Department of Environmental Engineering - Kyoto University); Petr Havlík (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASA); Gokul Iyer (Joint Global Change Research Institute - Pacific Northwest National Laboratory); Kimon Keramidas (Joint Research Centre of the European Commission); Alban Kitous (Joint Research Centre of the European Commission); Michaja Pehl (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research PIK, Member of the Leibniz Association); Volker Krey (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASA); Keywan Riahi (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASA); Bert Saveyn (Joint Research Centre of the European Commission); Massimo Tavoni (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Politecnico di Milano - Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering); Detlef P. Van Vuuren (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development - Utrecht University); Elmar Kriegler (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research PIK, Member of the Leibniz Association)

Tipo: Journal
Pubblicato in: Nature Climate Change, 8, pages 626–633

Abstract

The Paris Agreement—which is aimed at holding global warming well below 2 °C while pursuing efforts to limit it below 1.5 °C—has initiated a bottom-up process of iteratively updating nationally determined contributions to reach these long-term goals. Achieving these goals implies a tight limit on cumulative net CO2 emissions, of which residual CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are the greatest impediment. Here, using an ensemble of seven integrated assessment models (IAMs), we explore the determinants of these residual emissions, focusing on sector-level contributions. Even when strengthened pre-2030 mitigation action is combined with very stringent long-term policies, cumulative residual CO2 emissions from fossil fuels remain at 850–1,150 GtCO2 during 2016–2100, despite carbon prices of US$130–420 per tCO2 by 2030. Thus, 640–950 GtCO2 removal is required for a likely chance of limiting end-of-century warming to 1.5 °C. In the absence of strengthened pre-2030 pledges, long-term CO2 commitments are increased by 160–330 GtCO2, further jeopardizing achievement of the 1.5 °C goal and increasing dependence on CO2 removal.

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Residual fossil CO2 emissions in 1.5–2 °C pathways

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