External Publications
2017

Assessing the Feasibility of Global Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios


Autori: A. Gambhir, L. Drouet, D. McCollum, T. Napp, D. Bernie, A. Hawkes, O. Fricko, P. Havlik, K. Riahi, V. Bosetti, J. Lowe
Tipo: Journal
Pubblicato in: Energies, Volume 10, Number 1, 2017
Data: 2017

Abstract

This study explores the critical notion of how feasible it is to achieve long-term mitigation goals to limit global temperature change. It uses a model inter-comparison of three integrated assessment models (TIAM-Grantham, MESSAGE-GLOBIOM and WITCH) harmonized for socio-economic growth drivers using one of the new shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2), to analyse multiple mitigation scenarios aimed at different temperature changes in 2100, in order to assess the model outputs against a range of indicators developed so as to systematically compare the feasibility across scenarios. These indicators include mitigation costs and carbon prices, rates of emissions reductions and energy efficiency improvements, rates of deployment of key low-carbon technologies, reliance on negative emissions, and stranding of power generation assets. The results highlight how much more challenging the 2 °C goal is, when compared to the 2.5–4 °C goals, across virtually all measures of feasibility. Any delay in mitigation or limitation in technology options also renders the 2 °C goal much less feasible across the economic and technical dimensions explored. Finally, a sensitivity analysis indicates that aiming for less than 2 °C is even less plausible, with significantly higher mitigation costs and faster carbon price increases, significantly faster decarbonization and zero-carbon technology deployment rates, earlier occurrence of very significant carbon capture and earlier onset of global net negative emissions. Such a systematic analysis allows a more in-depth consideration of what realistic level of long-term temperature changes can be achieved and what adaptation strategies are therefore required

links
Link
Assessing the Feasibility of Global Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios

FEEM Newsletter

Iscriviti per rimanere aggiornato.

I Suoi dati saranno trattati dalla Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. – Titolare del trattamento – per ricevere via posta elettronica la newsletter della Fondazione. Il conferimento dell’indirizzo e-mail è necessario alla fornitura del servizio. La invitiamo a consultare la Privacy Policy per ottenere maggiori informazioni a tutela dei Suoi diritti.

Questo Sito utilizza cookie tecnici e analytics, nonché consente l’invio di cookie di profilazione di terze parti.
Chiudendo questo banner o comunque proseguendo la navigazione sul Sito manifesti il tuo consenso all’uso dei cookie. Per ulteriori informazioni e per esprimere scelte selettive in ordine all’uso dei cookie vedi la   Cookie PolicyOk