Seminari
13 gennaio 2011

When, and how, to be precautious


Dove: Milan
Sede:

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei
Corso Magenta 63
20123 Milan

Come raggiungere: Mappa di Google
Orario dell'evento:


h. 12.00 Seminar
h. 13.00 Light Lunch  

Informazione:

Seminars Office, seminars@feem.it

Speakers:

Stergios Athanassoglou, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei

Abstract

The precautionary principle (PP) applied to environmental policy stipulates that, in the presence of physical uncertainty, society must take take robust preventive action to guard against worst-case outcomes.  It follows that the higher the degree of uncertainty, the more aggressive this preventive action should be. This normative maxim is tested in the case of a simple dynamic model of pollution control under Knightian uncertainty, in which a benevolent government chooses a level of adaptation technology investment at time 0, and subsequently decides on a desirable dynamic emissions policy. Adopting the robust control framework of Hansen and Sargent (AER 2001), we investigate optimal adaptation and mitigation policies.  We show that optimal investment in adaptation technology is always increasing in the degree of uncertainty, thus confirming the conventional PP wisdom.  Optimal mitigation decisions, however, need not always comport with the PP and we provide analytical conditions that sway the relationship one way or the other.  This result is interesting when contrasted to a model without the possibility for adaptation investment, in which it can be easily shown that the PP unambiguously holds. We conduct a set of numerical experiments to determine the sensitivity of our results to specific functional forms of adaptation cost. We find that when the cost of adaptation technology is low enough, the PP can be unambiguously irrational.

Download file
Scarica il file PDF
When, and how, to be precautious (paper)
Download file
Scarica il file PDF
When, and how, to be precautious (presentation)

FEEM Update

Iscriviti per rimanere aggiornato.

I Suoi dati saranno trattati dalla Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. – Titolare del trattamento – per ricevere via posta elettronica la newsletter della Fondazione. Il conferimento dell’indirizzo e-mail è necessario alla fornitura del servizio. La invitiamo a consultare la Privacy Policy per ottenere maggiori informazioni a tutela dei Suoi diritti.

Questo Sito utilizza cookie tecnici e analytics, nonché consente l’invio di cookie di profilazione di terze parti.
Chiudendo questo banner o comunque proseguendo la navigazione sul Sito manifesti il tuo consenso all’uso dei cookie. Per ulteriori informazioni e per esprimere scelte selettive in ordine all’uso dei cookie vedi la   Cookie PolicyOk