Seminari
3 giugno 2010

Uncertain Outcomes and Climate Change Policy


Dove: Milan
Sede:

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei
Corso Magenta 63
20123 Milan

Come raggiungere: Mappa di Google
Orario dell'evento:


h. 12.00 Seminar
h. 13.00 Light Lunch

Informazione:

Seminars Office, seminars@feem.it

Speakers:

Robert S. Pindyck, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Professor of Economics and Finance Sloan School of Management Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Abstract

The seminar will be based on the following two papers by Robert S. Pindyck:

  • “Modeling the Impact of Warming in Climate Change Economics”
    Any economic analysis of climate change policy requires some model that describes the impact of warming on future GDP and consumption. Most integrated assessment models (IAMs) relate temperature to the level of real GDP and consumption, but there are theoretical and empirical reasons to expect temperature to affect the growth rate rather than level of GDP. Does this distinction matter in terms of implications for policy? And how does the answer depend on the nature and extent of uncertainty over future temperature change and its impact? I address these questions by estimating the fraction of consumption society would be willing to sacrifice to limit future increases in temperature, using probability distributions for temperature and impact inferred from studies assembled by the IPCC, and comparing estimates based on a direct versus growth rate impact of temperature on GDP.
  • “Uncertain Outcomes and Climate Change Policy”
    Focusing on tail effects, I incorporate distributions for temperature change and its economic impact in an analysis of climate change policy. I estimate the fraction of consumption w*(?) that society would be willing to sacrifice to ensure that any increase in temperature at a future point is limited to ?. Using information on the distributions for temperature change and economic impact from studies assembled by the IPCC and from “integrated assessment models” (IAMs), I fit displaced gamma distributions for these variables. Unlike existing IAMs, I model economic impact as a relationship between temperature change and the growth rate of GDP as opposed to its level, so that warming has a permanent impact on future GDP. The fitted distributions for temperature change and economic impact generally yield values of w*(?) below 2%, even for small values of ? , unless one assumes extreme parameter values and/or substantial shifts in the temperature distribution. These results are consistent with moderate abatement policies.
Download file
Scarica il file PDF

FEEM Newsletter

Iscriviti per rimanere aggiornato.

I Suoi dati saranno trattati dalla Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. – Titolare del trattamento – per ricevere via posta elettronica la newsletter della Fondazione. Il conferimento dell’indirizzo e-mail è necessario alla fornitura del servizio. La invitiamo a consultare la Privacy Policy per ottenere maggiori informazioni a tutela dei Suoi diritti.

Questo Sito utilizza cookie tecnici e analytics, nonché consente l’invio di cookie di profilazione di terze parti.
Chiudendo questo banner o comunque proseguendo la navigazione sul Sito manifesti il tuo consenso all’uso dei cookie. Per ulteriori informazioni e per esprimere scelte selettive in ordine all’uso dei cookie vedi la   Cookie PolicyOk