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The project purporse is to perform empirical studies of the impacts of climatic variability, in particular hot summers, warm winters and wind storms, on natural, social and economic systems in Europe. The studies consist of both quantitative investigations of published statistics and analyses of the responses to questionnaires and interviews. FEEM carries out the above studies for Italy which, together with Germany, the Netherlands, and the UK, are the countries examined.

The project purporse is to perform empirical studies of the impacts of climatic variability, in particular hot summers, warm winters and wind storms, on natural, social and economic systems in Europe.

The studies consist of both quantitative investigations of published statistics and analyses of the responses to questionnaires and interviews.

FEEM carries out the above studies for Italy which, together with Germany, the Netherlands, and the UK, are the countries examined.

The project has the following objectives:

  • to examine the impacts of a selected recent hot summer, and a recent mild winter, on the natural environment and on national economies; to set a monetary value on these impacts, where possible. The approach is sector-wise, looking at activities such as tourism, agriculture, water supply, energy and health. A common core exists to allow international comparisons;
  • to examine how the impacts of extreme seasons propagate between the national economies of EU member countries. The sectors being analysed are tourism and agricultural products;
  • to examine the impact of climate ‘shocks’. The selected shock is wind storm and its impact on property insurance;
  • where possible, to examine how sensitivities and vulnerabilities to climate extremes and shocks have changed over time, by comparing the impact of a recent extreme/shock (e.g., for the western seaboard, the hot summer of 1995) with impacts at an earlier time (e.g. the hot summer of 1976);
  • to investigate the perceptions of the general public and management regarding climate extremes and shocks and; 6) to use the results, where appropriate, to say something about the impacts of a warmer climate on national economies and the EU.
  • Methodology
    Most studies of potential economic impacts of climate change draw upon scenarios of future climate and of the future economy. Another approach, which has been pursued only recently, is to consider observed impacts of recent climate extremes on economies and societies. Although no direct comparisons can be made between the impacts of climate variability and of climate change, empirical studies of recent climate extremes can provide useful information about the nature and scale of impacts on different sectors and upon the way in which different cultures respond. The impacts of a recent hot summer, warm winter and a wind storm on the economies, societies and natural environments of four European countries (the UK, the Netherlands, Italy and Germany) are being studied primarily through quantitative analysis of published statistics. A sector-wise approach is being taken, with a core group of sectors among the participants in order to allow international comparison. Where possible, a monetary value is being placed on the impacts. Perceptions of the impacts of climate variability, both among the general public and among policy makers and management, are being examined by questionnaire and interview. Identification of the extent to which adaptations are already occurring in response to a perceived increase in certain types of extreme forms an important component of this research. This in turn should shed light on the extent to which an increased frequency and/or severity of climate extremes in the future can be accommodated at the institutional level without costly intervention at national or international level.