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Coordinator: Università degli Studi di Brescia (UNIBS)

Funding entity: Fondazione Cariplo

Partners: Fondazione ENI Enrico Mattei (FEEM) and Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna di Pisa (SSSA)

DESCRIPTION

The DS-CHANGES project explores the potential of agricultural landscapes for carbon storage and examines the impact of carbon farming practices. Supported by the Cariplo Foundation and enriched with data from the RICA dataset, the project aims to provide robust, data-driven evidence on the determinants of carbon farming practices in Lombardy. It involves creating a unique georeferenced dataset by combining soil and climate data with longitudinal data on Lombardy and Italian farms, using advanced econometric and machine learning techniques to understand the drivers of carbon-farming adoption.

 

The project has two main stages:

1.      Retrospective Assessment:·

  • Estimate and rank adoption drivers of land-use and soil management practices, focusing on climatic and weather-related factors.
  • Assess the economic incentives of introducing these practices, providing price estimates for carbon certificates to make carbon farming financially sustainable.·
  • Evaluate the profitability of carbon farming compared to alternative practices, offering insights into policy effectiveness and the need for new policies.

2.      Prospective Analysis:

  • Construct a fully data-driven agent-based model using real-world data, calibrated on empirically derived behavioral rules.·
  • Integrate a bio-physical submodule for precise crop yield predictions under diverse climatic conditions.·
  • Conduct mid-century projections considering various climatic patterns, agricultural market dynamics, and policy scenarios.

The goal is to provide a holistic understanding of carbon farming and its role in mitigating climate change, exploring climatic, environmental, and social drivers, as well as the impact of policy decisions at individual and community levels.

EXPECTED RESULTS

  • Quantitative Assessment: Identify and rank key factors influencing carbon-farming adoption.
  • Economic Viability: Assess profitability and generate estimates for carbon credit pricing.
  • Policy Insights: Provide insights into policy effectiveness and the need for new policies.
  • Future Projections: Develop a data-driven model for projecting mid-century land use and carbon farming adoption rates.
  • Innovative Evidence: Offer new evidence on the drivers of carbon farming, with potential national-scale applications.

 

Policy/social impact

The policy and social impact of DS-CHANGES includes:

  • Informed Policymaking: Provide a framework for projecting carbon farming adoption rates and assessing policy effectiveness.
  • Economic Incentives: Inform market mechanisms and policy interventions to support carbon farming.
  • Sustainable Practices: Encourage widespread adoption of sustainable agricultural practices.
  • Stakeholder Engagement: Disseminate results through scientific conferences, workshops, and public repositories.
  • Market Development: Aid in establishing a robust market for carbon credits generated by the agricultural sector.