Funded by: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei
April 2020 / December 2020

Estimate of the future impact of COVID-19 on the Italian energy system (COVID-Energy)

The aim of the study is an assessment of the potential effects for Italy of the current Covid-19 crisis in terms of energy consumption and production by type of source, CO2 emissions, by comparing different scenarios up to 2025 and 2030. The assessments will be carried out considering the potential changes against a reference scenario, defined on the basis of the information contained in the National Energy and Climate Plan. The main sectors of final energy consumption will be considered, including the industrial, tertiary, residential, agriculture and transport sectors. A detailed analysis of the electricity needs and the different sources used for their generation will also be carried out, starting from the development plans envisaged by the national strategy.

Main Results and Outputs

The main expected results of this research project are the following:

  • The impact of the economic crisis that is emerging on the country's production system, which will have consequences for the industrial sector, the tertiary sector and the transport sector. It will therefore be necessary to estimate the effects on energy consumption of the various sectors starting from different scenarios of evolution of the economic situation.
  • The potential impact on investments related to clean technology and energy efficiency due to the economic crisis following COVID-19, but also due to the European economic recovery plan post-COVID-19. The ambition of the EU is to set sustainability as a founding pillar of the recovery plan. As such, the European Green Deal could represent an important part of the recovery plan.
  • The effects of the current situation on the mobility habits of the population, considering the potential long-term effects, such as an increased use of teleworking in some specific production and service sectors.
  • The study aims to provide indications for policy makers regarding the extent of the potential effects of the current crisis, in order to evaluate the possible actions to be taken to develop a sustainable and resilient energy system. In addition, the results may prove to be a useful support for the future strategies of industrial players that need to be based on the evolution of the energy systems.
Project team
Project leader
Manfred Hafner
Geopolitics and the Energy Transition - GET Programme Director Read more

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