Projects
January 2008 / December 2010

Security of Energy Considering its Uncertainty, Risk and Economic implications - SECURE

SECURE aims to build a comprehensive framework covering all the issues related to security of supply, including geopolitics, price formation and the design of energy markets inside and outside the EU. SECURE develops tools to...

SECURE aims to build a comprehensive framework covering all the issues related to security of supply, including geopolitics, price formation and the design of energy markets inside and outside the EU. 
SECURE develops tools to evaluate EU’s vulnerability to the different risks which affect energy supplies in order to help optimising EU’s energy insecurity mitigation strategies. Costs and benefits are evaluated for different energy demand scenarios to help policy makers providing the most appropriate solutions. All major energy vectors are addressed from upstream to downstream with both a global and sectoral analysis studying technical, economic/regulatory and geopolitical risks, as well as demand issues related to energy security. SECURE provides a comprehensive methodological and quantitative framework to measure energy security of supply, and will propose policy recommendations on how to improve energy security taking into account costs, benefits and risks of various policy choices.

Main Results and Outputs

The main focus of the project during its first year has been on building the methodological pillars that will underpin the research activities for the rest of its duration. In particular:

  • the development of a shared methodological basis to study energy security issues that can be broadly applied to all energy sectors while leaving enough autonomy to allow for an adequate treatment of sectoral specificities;
  • setting up an international survey to elicit the willingness to pay for improvements in energy security, from European households and industrial consumers;
  • the development of “storylines” which are the qualitative basis for the quantitative scenarios, which are analysed using the POLES model. These storylines have been designed in order to portray plausible and consistent development paths of the World and European energy sectors for the next 30 years;
  • the development of specific modelling tools and in particular, the adaptation of POLES to run according to the storylines.

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