FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series
2015 .001

The Effects of Expert Selection, Elicitation Design, and R&D Assumptions on Experts’ Estimates of the Future Costs of Photovoltaics


Authors: Elena Verdolini, Laura Diaz Anadon, Jiaqi Lu, Gregory F. Nemet
Series: Energy: Resources and Markets
Editor: Giuseppe Sammarco
Type: Journal
Keywords: Photovoltaic Costs, Energy R&D, Expert Elicitation, Survey Design, Heuristics
JEL n.: O32, Q40, Q55
JEL: Energy Policy
Pages: Volume 80, Pages 233-243
Date: 05/2015

Abstract

Expert elicitations of future energy technology costs can improve energy policy design by explicitly characterizing uncertainty. However, the recent proliferation of expert elicitation studies raises questions about the reliability and comparability of the results. In this paper, we standardize disparate expert elicitation data from five EU and US studies, involving 65 experts, of the future costs of photovoltaics (PV) and evaluate the impact of expert and study characteristics on the elicited metrics. The results for PV suggest that in-person elicitations are associated with more optimistic 2030 PV cost estimates and in some models with a larger range of uncertainty than online elicitations. Unlike in previous results on nuclear power, expert affiliation type and nationality do not affect central estimates. Some specifications suggest that EU experts are more optimistic about breakthroughs, but they are also less confident in that they provide larger ranges of estimates than do US experts.  Higher R&D investment is associated with lower future costs.  Rather than increasing confidence, high R&D increases uncertainty about future costs, mainly because it improves the base case (low cost) outcomes more than it improves the worst case (high cost) outcomes.

***
Suggested citation: Elena Verdolini, Laura Diaz Anadon, Jiaqi Lu, Gregory F. Nemet, The effects of expert selection, elicitation design, and R&D assumptions on experts' estimates of the future costs of photovoltaics, Energy Policy, Volume 80, May 2015, Pages 233-243, ISSN 0301-4215, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.01.006

.

Download file
Download PDF file

FEEM Update

Subscribe to stay connected.

Your personal data will be processed by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. – data Controller – with the aim of emailing the FEEM newsletter. The use of Your email address is necessary for the implementation of the newsletter service. You are invited to read the Privacy Policy in order to obtain additional information about the protection of Your rights.

This Website uses technical cookies and cookie analytics, as well as “third party” profiling cookies.
If you close this banner or you decide to continue navigating on this Website, you express consent to the use of cookies. If you need additional information or you wish to express selective choices on the use of cookies, please refer to the   Cookie PolicyI agree