FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro"
Date: 7/8/2020

M-LED: Multi-sectoral Latent Electricity Demand Assessment for Energy Access Planning

Giacomo Falchetta (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Cattolica University); Nicolò Stevanato (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Politecnico di Milano - Department of Energy); Magda Moner-Girona (European Commission - Joint Research Centre); Davide Mazzoni (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Emanuela Colombo (Politecnico di Milano - Department of Energy); Manfred Hafner (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, John Hopkins University SAIS, Sciences Po PSIA)
JEL n.: Q4, Q41, O13
Keywords: Electricity Access, Energy Demand, Rural Development, Bottom-up Modelling, Sub-Saharan Africa, Multi-sectoral Approach, Water-Energy-Food-Environment Nexus


Globally about 800 million people live without electricity at home, over two thirds of which are in sub-Saharan Africa. Ending energy poverty is a key development priority because energy plays an enabling role for human wellbeing and economic activities. Planning electricity access infrastructure and allocating resources efficiently requires a careful assessment of the diverse energy needs across space, time, and sectors. However, because of data scarcity, most country or regional-scale electrification planning studies have been based on top-down electricity demand targets. Yet, poorly representing the heterogeneity in the electricity demand can lead to inappropriate energy planning, inaccurate energy system sizing, and misleading cost assessments. Here we introduce M-LED, Multi-sectoral Latent Electricity Demand, a geospatial data processing platform to estimate electricity demand in communities that live in energy poverty. The key novelties of the platform are the multi-sectoral, bottom-up, time explicit demand evaluation and the assessment of water-energy-agriculture development interlinkages. We apply the methodology to the country-study of Kenya. Our findings suggest that a bottom-up approach to evaluating energy needs across space, time, and sectors is likely to improve the reliability and accuracy of supply-side electrification modelling and therefore of electrification planning and policy.


Suggested citation: Falchetta, G., N. Stevanato, M. Moner-Girona, D. Mazzoni, E. Colombo, M. Hafner, (2020), 'M-LED: Multi-sectoral Latent Electricity Demand Assessment for Energy Access Planning', Nota di Lavoro 9.2020, Milano, Italy: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei

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