FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series
2015 .091

Global Oil Market and the U.S. Stock Returns


Authors: Maryam Ahmad, Matteo Manera, Mehdi Sadeghzadeh
Series: Energy: Resources and Markets
Editor: Matteo Manera
Type: Journal
Keywords: Oil Market, Oil Price, Stock Market
JEL n.: G1, G12, Q41
JEL: Energy
Pages: Vol. 114, Pages 1277–1287
Date: 11/2016

Abstract

This paper provides an analysis of the link between the oil market and the U.S. stock market returns at the aggregate as well as industry levels. We empirically model oil price changes as driven by speculative demand shocks along with consumption demand and supply shocks in the oil market. We also take into account in our model all the factors that affect stock market price movements over and above the oil market, in order to quantify the pure effect of oil price shocks on returns. The results show that stock returns respond to oil price shocks differently, depending on the causes behind the shocks. Impulse response analysis suggests that consumption demand shocks are the most relevant drivers of the stock market return, relative to other oil market driven shocks. Industry level analysis is performed to control for the heterogeneity of the responses of returns to oil price changes. The results show that both cost side and demand side effects of oil price shocks matter for the responses of industries to oil price shocks. However, the main driver of the variation in industries’ returns is the shock to aggregate stock market.

***

Suggested citation: Maryam Ahmadi, Matteo Manera, Mehdi Sadeghzadeh, Global oil market and the U.S. stock returns, Energy, Volume 114, 1 November 2016, Pages 1277-1287, ISSN 0360-5442, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2016.08.078
 

Download file
Download PDF file

FEEM Update

Subscribe to stay connected.

Your personal data will be processed by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. – data Controller – with the aim of emailing the FEEM newsletter. The use of Your email address is necessary for the implementation of the newsletter service. You are invited to read the Privacy Policy in order to obtain additional information about the protection of Your rights.

This Website uses technical cookies and cookie analytics, as well as “third party” profiling cookies.
If you close this banner or you decide to continue navigating on this Website, you express consent to the use of cookies. If you need additional information or you wish to express selective choices on the use of cookies, please refer to the   Cookie PolicyI agree