FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series
2014 .027

European Energy Efficiency and Decarbonization Strategies Beyond 2030 – A Sectoral Multi-model Decomposition


Authors: Hannah Förster, Katja Schumacher, Enrica De Cian, Michael Hübler, Ilkka Keppo, Silvana Mima, Ronald D. Sands
Series: Climate Change and Sustainable Development
Editor: Carlo Carraro
Type: Journal
Keywords: Decomposition Analysis, Decarbonization, Model Intercomparison
JEL n.: Q4, Q5, Q51
JEL: Climate Change Economics
Pages: Volume 04, Issue supp01
Date: 11/2013

Abstract

Energy efficiency and decarbonization are important elements of climate change mitigation. We draw on European mitigation scenarios from the EMF28 modeling exercise to decompose economy-wide and sectoral emissions into their main components. We utilize the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) to gain insights into five effects: affluence, energy intensity, carbon intensity, conversion efficiency, and structural change. Economy-wide analysis suggests that energy efficiency improvements (including end-use efficiency of economic production and structural change of the economy) determine emission reductions short to medium term while decarbonization becomes more important in the long run. Sectoral analysis suggests that electricity generation holds the largest potential for decarbonization. Mitigation in the transport and energy-intensive sectors is limited by technology availability, forcing output and energy inputs to decline to meet the given mitigation pathways. We conclude that energy efficiency improvements could bridge the time until carbon-free technologies mature, while their quick development remains essential.

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Suggested citation: Hannah F ö rster et al, European Energy Efficiency and Decarbonization Strategies Beyond 2030 - A Sectoral Multi-model Decomposition, Clim. Change Econ., 04, 1340004 (2013), doi: 10.1142/S2010007813400046.

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