FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series
2017 .040

Can the Global Forest Sector Survive 11°C Warming?


Authors: Alice Favero, Robert Mendelsohn, Brent Sohngen
Series: Climate Change: Economic Impacts and Adaptation
Editor: Francesco Bosello
Keywords: Climate Change, RCP 8.5, Forestry, Dynamic Optimization, Timber market
JEL n.: Q5, Q23

Abstract

It is well known that the forestry sector is sensitive to climate change but most studies have examined impacts only through 2100 and warming of less than 4°C. This is the first timber analysis to consider possible climate change impacts out to 2250 and warming up to 11°C above 1900 levels. The results suggest that large productivity gains through 2190 lead to a continued expansion of the global timber supply. However, as carbon fertilization effects diminish and continued warming causes forestland to continue to shrink, warming above 8°C is predicted to become harmful to the forest sector.

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Suggested citation: Favero, A., R. Mendelsohn, B. Sohngen, (2017), 'Can the Global Forest Sector Survive 11°C Warming?', Nota di Lavoro 40.2017, Milano, Italy: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei

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