External Publications
2018

Towards demand-side solutions for mitigating climate change


Authors: Creutzig, Felix & Roy, Joyashree & Lamb, William & M. L. Azevedo, Inês & Bruine de Bruin, Wändi & Dalkmann, Holger & Edelenbosch, Oreane & Geels, Frank & Grubler, Arnulf & Hepburn, Cameron & Hertwich, Edgar & Khosla, Radhika & Mattauch, Linus & Minx, Jan & Ramakrishnan, Anjali & Rao, Narasimha & Steinberger, Julia & Tavoni, Massimo & Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana & U. Weber, Elke
Type: Journal
Pages: 8, 268-271
Published in: Nature Climate Change
Date: 2018

Abstract

The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for countries to pursue efforts to limit global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The transition pathways that can meet such a target have not, however, been extensively explored. Here we describe scenarios that limit end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m−2, and consequently restrict median warming in the year 2100 to below 1.5 °C. We use six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model, under different socio-economic, technological and resource assumptions from five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Some, but not all, SSPs are amenable to pathways to 1.5 °C. Successful 1.9 W m−2 scenarios are characterized by a rapid shift away from traditional fossil-fuel use towards large-scale low-carbon energy supplies, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal. However, 1.9 W m−2 scenarios could not be achieved in several models under SSPs with strong inequalities, high baseline fossil-fuel use, or scattered short-term climate policy. Further research can help policy-makers to understand the real-world implications of these scenarios.

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Towards demand-side solutions for mitigating climate change

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