External Publications
2018.12
Date: 16/7/2018

Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles


Authors:

David L. McCollum (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASA, Howard H. Baker Jr. Center for Public Policy - University of Tennessee); Charlie Wilson (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASA, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research - University of East Anglia); Michela Bevione (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Economic analysis of Climate Impacts and Policy Division ECIP - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC);  Samuel Carrara (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Economic analysis of Climate Impacts and Policy Division ECIP - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC); Oreane Y. Edelenbosch (Climate, Air and Energy Department - PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development - Utrecht University); Johannes Emmerling (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Economic analysis of Climate Impacts and Policy Division ECIP - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC); Céline Guivarch (Ecole des Ponts - Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement CIRED); Panagiotis Karkatsoulis (E3MLab/Institute of Communications and Computer Systems - National Technical University of Athens); Ilkka Keppo (UCL Energy Institute - University College London); Volker Krey (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASA); Zhenhong Lin (Center for Transportation Analysis - Oak Ridge National Laboratory ORNL, Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering - University of Tennessee); Eoin Ó Broin (Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement CIRED & Société de Mathématiques Appliquées et de Sciences Humaines SMASH); Leonidas Paroussos (E3MLab/Institute of Communications and Computer Systems - National Technical University of Athens); Hazel Pettifor (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research - University of East Anglia); Kalai Ramea (Institute of Transportation Studies - University of California); Keywan Riahi (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IASA, Institute of Thermal Engineering - Graz University of Technology, Payne Institute - Colorado School of Mines); Fuminori Sano (Systems Analysis Group - Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth RITE): Baltazar Solano Rodriguez (UCL Energy Institute - University College London); Detlef P. van Vuuren (Climate, Air and Energy Department - PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development - Utrecht University)

Type: Journal
Published in: Nature Energy, 3, pages664–673(2018)

Abstract

Burgeoning demands for mobility and private vehicle ownership undermine global efforts to reduce energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. Advanced vehicles powered by low-carbon sources of electricity or hydrogen offer an alternative to conventional fossil-fuelled technologies. Yet, despite ambitious pledges and investments by governments and automakers, it is by no means clear that these vehicles will ultimately reach mass-market consumers. Here, we develop state-of-the-art representations of consumer preferences in multiple global energy-economy models, specifically focusing on the non-financial preferences of individuals. We employ these enhanced model formulations to analyse the potential for a low-carbon vehicle revolution up to 2050. Our analysis shows that a diverse set of measures targeting vehicle buyers is necessary to drive widespread adoption of clean technologies. Carbon pricing alone is insufficient to bring low-carbon vehicles to the mass market, though it may have a supporting role in ensuring a decarbonized energy supply.

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Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles

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