Energy shocks in the Euro area: Disentangling the pass-through from oil and gas prices to inflation
01.08.2024
Chiara Casoli (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei – FEEM); Matteo Manera (University of Milano-Bicocca; Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei – FEEM); Daniele Valenti (Politecnico di Milano; Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei – FEEM)
Bayesian structural VARs, InflationEnergy shocks, Oil and gas market
Elsevier
Journal of International Money and Finance
We develop a Bayesian Structural VAR model to study the relationship between different energy shocks and inflation dynamics in Europe. Specifically, we model the endogenous transmission from shocks identified by the global market of crude oil and the European natural gas market to two target macroeconomic variables, i.e. inflation expectations and realized headline inflation rate. Our results demonstrate that, since the post-pandemic recovery, inflation in the Euro area is mostly driven by energy price shocks and aggregate supply factors. In particular, the high peaks of the Eurozone inflation are mostly associated with natural gas supply shocks.